theory2

In my project is decided early on to focus on predictions during this time. Even before the quarantine started, I started to see various predictions and forecasts for what society was going to change into. As people got scared and society took a sudden shift into a new structure with new norms, the predictions became omnipresent. For the database I collected various examples, and through my algorithmic sorting of the rest of the database I was left with a selection of this phenomenon.

My algorithm is to start on top of the database, and then read the main data entry. If the entry is some sort of prediction or forecast about what the future will look like, the data entry is marked in yellow. This action is repeated for all data entries. After this all non-marked entries were removed from the database, and I was left with a selection of about 30 entries. This selection allowed me to easily compare the different predictions.

I read an article that collected various predictions for post-corona urban life, as well as an article talking about the uncertainness of these predictions. The first article was written by 12 different experts of urban design and development. While reading the expert-predictions in the first text, the disparities between them were obvious. Seen as a whole they said few definite things, as there were few things that could be agreed upon by all. Some were more laced with optimism than others, and others were even of a ideological nature, presenting their utopias as predictions without truly backing up this hypothetical development with any facts.

The second text was more factually based, presenting a study into the evolving habits of a homebound populace. The position of the text was presented in the title “Why we need to be critical of our post-coronavirus predictions,” and was written by Chase Buckle. The article uses data from a self-made study analysing consumer habits during the pandemic. The data is presented in a very simplified and readable manner and also compares their results with other barometers. Still the language of the article is never very scientific but communicates their analysis in a disarming and brief manner.

While saying that the study showed an increased interest in cooking, working out, and streaming media online, he also expressed how the study showed doubt in how lasting these shits in behaviour will be. The uncertainty of the predictions touches on the same concept as Kevin Slavin’s concept of “Garbage in – garbage out”. His predictions are only as good as the predictions of the people answering the study. In one part the study asked respondents whether they thought would keep up their new habits after corona ends. While the respondents doubted that they would continue streaming so much media online, they were more sure about keeping up their interest in cooking and working out. Alas Buckle’s predictions are no better than the self-control of his respondents.

Both articles illustrate our need for predictions and forecasts in troubling times, while still making clear the fallibility and uncertainty of any claims about what the future will look like. They are an uncertain answer to uncertainty. Still they can provide both comfort and guidance, as well as be a platform for ideological dreams of what the future can look like.

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