theory

Uncertainty in Predictions

In my project is decided early on to focus on predictions during this time. Even before the quarantine started, I started to see various predictions and forecasts for what society was going to change into. As people got scared and society took a sudden shift into a new structure with new norms, the predictions became omnipresent. For the database I collected various examples, and through my algorithmic sorting of the rest of the database I was left with a selection of this phenomenon.

I read an article that collected various predictions for post-corona urban life, as well as an article talking about the uncertainness of these predictions. The first article was written by 12 different experts of urban design and development. While reading the expert-predictions in the first text, the disparities between them were obvious. Seen as a whole they said few definite things, as there were few things that could be agreed upon by all. Some were more laced with optimism than others, and others were even of a ideological nature, presenting their utopias as predictions without truly backing up this hypothetical development with any facts.

The second text was more factually based, presenting a study into the evolving habits of a homebound populace. The position of the text was presented in the title “Why we need to be critical of our post-coronavirus predictions,” and was written by Chase Buckle. The article uses data from a self-made study analysing consumer habits during the pandemic. The data is presented in a very simplified and readable manner and also compares their results with other barometers. Still the language of the article is never very scientific but communicates their analysis in a disarming and brief manner.

While saying that the study showed an increased interest in cooking, working out, and streaming media online, he also expressed how the study showed doubt in how lasting these shits in behaviour will be. The uncertainty of the predictions touches on the same concept as Kevin Slavin’s concept of “Garbage in – garbage out”. His predictions are only as good as the predictions of the people answering the study. In one part the study asked respondents whether they thought would keep up their new habits after corona ends. While the respondents doubted that they would continue streaming so much media online, they were more sure about keeping up their interest in cooking and working out. Alas Buckle’s predictions are no better than the self-control of his respondents.

Both articles illustrate our need for predictions and forecasts in troubling times, while still making clear the fallibility and uncertainty of any claims about what the future will look like. They are an uncertain answer to uncertainty. Still they can provide both comfort and guidance, as well as be a platform for ideological dreams of what the future can look like.

How Life in Out Cities Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic [01/05/20]

By Richard Florida, Edward Glaeser, Maimunah Mohd Sharif, Kiran Bedi, Thomas J. Campanella, Chan Heng Chee, Dan Doctoroff, Bruce Katz, Rebecca Katz, Joel Kotkin, Robert Muggah, Janette Sadik-Khan

Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/01/future-of-cities-urban-life-after-coronavirus-pandemic/

1) 12 “leading global experts” share predictions for post-pandemic cities
- Urban life offer opportunities for jobs, play, goods. The pandemic makes visible the risks of urban life, and cities may thus stand at a crossroads.
- Richard Florida: Economic collapse post-pandemics have historically led to an increased urbanization. Corona may lead to a reenergization of cities, being repopulated by newer, younger people.
- Edward Glaeser: Modern cities are mostly populated by service workers, covid may lead to a collapse in that labor market if anti-pandemic health care infrastructure is not improved.
- Robert Muggah: The pandemic leads to an acceleration of digitalization, remote work. An opportunity to rebuild.
- Thomas J. Campanella: Anti-urbanists are always wrong in the end. Corona leads to a rejuvenation of urban centres.
- Rebecca Katz: We may see reverse-urbanization. We will see improved disease preparedness.
- Maimunah Mohd Sharif: Corona makes urban inequalities more visible, and they need to be fixed.
- Kiran Bedi: Decrowding of cities will make it cheaper but less colorful. We will stay at home more.
- Janette Sadik-Khan: There’s opportunity to make cities greener and more walkable.
- Bruce Katz: The pandemic may lead to institutional change in cities, and it’s needed for urban recovery after the long closures.
- Joel Kotkin: The pandemic may lead to de-densification, a new wave of suburbia (hopefully greener).
- Chan Heng Chee: The economic structure of Singapore will have to be rethought to reduce risk of pandemics in the future.
- Dan Doctoroff: Cities will bound back better, more equal, greener, more affordable, if we take this opportunity.

2) The text communicates a variety of possibilities through various expert-statements. The prophecies are both overlapping and contradictory. Many are appeals for being more equal, greener, and not predictions per se. Most of the statements start out with a very brief overview of the current crisis, before the lay down their hypothesis for the future development of urban centres.

3) Overall the article communicates conflicting messages that allows the reader to make her own judgment of current events. While Florida and Campanella predicts heightened urbanization, Kotkin and Rebecca Katz predict the opposite.
The collection of statements from experts in the field introduces new ideas and vocabulary for discussing urban development and offers a more nuanced look on the effect that corona has on cities.

Why we need to be critical of our post-coronavirus predictions [14/04/20]

By Chase Buckle

Source: https://blog.globalwebindex.com/chart-of-the-week/being-critical-of-post-coronavirus-predictions/

1) At the beginning of the pandemic streaming habits increased as well as hobbies, exercising. However, people grow bored. A first increase in cooking decreased after a few weeks.
There has been an enlarged user group for streaming media. An increased demand for gaming and esports content. Data shows that people are enamoured by their new exercising habits, but do not intend to continue streaming as much as they are.
Their study shows a consumer appreciation for brands responding to the crisis in a responsible way. It is unsure whether brands “ethical considerations” will be prioritised in the long-term.

2) The article is using data from a couple of their self-made studies to try and analyse consumers new habits during the pandemic. It is presenting statistics in a very simplified and readable manner and compares their results with other barometers. The article is never very scientific, instead communicating their analysis in a disarming and brief manner.

3) The text is saying that people have an increased interest in homebound hobbies, like cooking and media-streaming, but also acknowledges the possible fleetingness of the changed behaviour. It uses the statistics in a matter-of-factly way and avoids introducing theories or predictions that are independent from the data. As a result, the article is boring in its lack of any edge or real purpose, only communicating logical and unrevealing data.